Are Democrats Losing Their Enthusiasm? A New Poll Gives GOP the Edge

Democrats who are counting on the same “blue wave” of civic engagement that helped their party win a majority in the House of Representatives in 2018 may need to adjust their expectations. As NBC’s Chuck Todd, Mark Murray and Carrie Dann report Monday, the party was propelled to victory based on two major factors: high enthusiasm among Democrats and support from independent voters. According to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC poll, however, Democrats are losing ground when it comes to voter enthusiasm.

President Donald Trump in the poll still trails with independents—just 34% of those surveyed have a positive view of him. However, the independents surveyed don’t share Democrats’ appetite for Trump’s impeachment, as 45% believe Congress should not impeach the president.

Pollsters also found that “75% of Republican registered voters say they have high interest in the 2020 presidential election—registering a “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale—versus 73% of Democratic voters who say the same thing.”

A two-percentage-point difference might not seem like a lot, but it’s a stark contrast from the 2018 midterm elections, when, as Todd, Murray and Dann point out, “Democrats held a double-digit lead on this question until the last two months before the election, when the GOP closed the gap but still trailed the Dems in enthusiasm.”

Those results, the NBC reporters caution, “should correct any Dem thinking that assumes—‘Hey, we have Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in the bag because we won there in [the] 2018 [cycle]’—since GOP enthusiasm now is much higher.”

Another reason for Democrats not to rest on their laurels is the growing enthusiasm not only among the Republican poll respondents, but among wealthy GOP donors. As Politico reported in April, fundraisers who previously worked for George W. Bush, John McCain and Mitt Romney who sat out the 2016 election are back to raising money for Trump in 2020.

On Tuesday, Julie Bykowicz writes in The Wall Street Journal, 200 Republican donors who declined to contribute to Trump’s first campaign “are set to gather…for a five-hour campaign pitch at the Trump International Hotel, down the street from the White House.”

Bykowicz reports the Trump campaign “has already raised well over $100 million and spent more than $92 million by the end of March on political rallies, digital advertising and other expenses, FEC records show.”

Overall enthusiasm for the 2020 election is high, with 69% of respondents across parties expressing a high level of interest. Such engagement with the election still more than 500 days away is a stark reminder that we are just at the beginning when it comes to this cycle, with countless more polls to come.